Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $23,665$ on 2020-10-16

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $345$ on 2020-10-16

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,233$ on 2020-10-16

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $74,422$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{122,702.4}{1 + 10^{-0.004 (t - 245.5)}}\) (asimptote \(122,702.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,122$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,985.2}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,985.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,800$ on 2020-10-16

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $391,611$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{269,036.9}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 50.4)}}\) (asimptote \(269,036.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $36,427$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,051.1}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 47.2)}}\) (asimptote \(35,051.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $107,312$ on 2020-10-16

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,048,865$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,121,663.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 149.5)}}\) (asimptote \(9,121,663.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $218,575$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{210,899.6}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 90.9)}}\) (asimptote \(210,899.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,632,751$ on 2020-10-16

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $692,112$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{729,288.3}{1 + 10^{-0.006 (t - 169.9)}}\) (asimptote \(729,288.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $43,519$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,184.3}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.0)}}\) (asimptote \(41,184.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $646,028$ on 2020-10-16

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $103,200$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{91,755.0}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 100.4)}}\) (asimptote \(91,755.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,918$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,785.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 52.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,785.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $97,282$ on 2020-10-16

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $359,802$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{287,532.1}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 75.3)}}\) (asimptote \(287,532.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,773$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,157.1}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 38.5)}}\) (asimptote \(9,157.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $61,002$ on 2020-10-16

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Singapore recovered 100%
Kazakhstan recovered 92%
Qatar recovered 92%
Rwanda recovered 87%
Saudi Arabia recovered 86%
Zambia recovered 81%
Korea, South recovered 81%
Uzbekistan recovered 74%
Senegal recovered 70%
El Salvador recovered 68%
Peru recovered 66%
Cuba recovered 66%
Malawi recovered 60%
United Arab Emirates recovered 57%
Bolivia recovered 55%
Colombia recovered 53%
Tajikistan recovered 50%
Israel recovered 49%
Bahrain recovered 48%
Venezuela recovered 45%
Dominican Republic recovered 39%
Trinidad and Tobago recovered 35%
Denmark recovered 21%
India recovered 21%
Guyana recovered 15%

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $57,901$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,326.4}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 117.9)}}\) (asimptote \(56,326.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.9}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(26.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $89$ on 2020-10-16

Kazakhstan⮸

Population $18,776,707$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $109,302$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108,710.4}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 116.0)}}\) (asimptote \(108,710.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,768$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,749.1}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 135.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,749.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,613$ on 2020-10-16

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $128,992$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{120,892.7}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 96.3)}}\) (asimptote \(120,892.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $222$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{211.8}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 92.7)}}\) (asimptote \(211.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,764$ on 2020-10-16

Rwanda⮸

Population $12,952,218$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,965$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,842.7}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 150.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,842.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-06-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39.1}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 98.9)}}\) (asimptote \(39.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $267$ on 2020-10-16